This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.
Market Commentary:
For the week of June 7th to June 13th, interest rates improved after yesterday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers showing inflation is slowing. In addition, the Federal Reserve Chair indicated inflation is more under control and there’s a possibility of at least one rate cut in 2024. June 13th Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers support the economy is slowing resulting in a further rally in the Bond market resulting in rates trending down.
Fed Watch:
Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group:
|
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting Dates |
Current (5.25% - 5.50%) |
0.25% Reduction (5.00% - 5.25%) |
0.5% Reduction (4.75% - 5.00%) |
|
July 31 |
89.7% |
10.3% |
0% |
|
September 18 |
32.3% |
61.1% |
6.6% |
|
November 7 |
20.4% |
50.5% |
26.7% |
|
December 18 |
4.8% |
27.1% |
44.5% |
Market Review:
Optimal Blue’s Production Metrics:
-- Freddie Mac PMMS
Consumer Credit:
Pre-Covid, consumer credit grew by $15 billion/month and remained that way through 12/21. During CY2022, consumer credit growth jumped to $30 billion/month, but since 1/23 growth has steadily weakened and is now about $5 billion/month. Moreover, credit card balances declined by $462 million in April, the first decline in three years, evidence of strain on low- and middle-income households who rely more on plastic and less on their portfolio.
- Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist
News You Can Use:
- Americans Rush to Refinance Their Homes as Mortgage Rates Change
- Fed holds rates steady, indicates only one cut coming this year
- Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2024 — in one chart
- Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2024
- 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May
- These US cities are due for a housing price drop, real estate analysts find
- In sweeping change, Biden administration to ban medical debt from credit reports
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 06/13/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 06/13/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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