This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.
Market Commentary:
For the week of June 21st to June 27th, interest rates improved slightly. Per Freddie Mac, as inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%, an immediate cut in the federal fund rates is not on the horizon. However, in a scenario where the job market cools sufficiently to keep inflation in check, we anticipate one rate cut in the latter half of the year. This potential scenario could lead to a gradual easing of mortgage rates. We expect mortgage rates to remain above 6.5% through the end of the year, which compared to the rates as high as 7.8% witnessed last year is a positive development and could offer some respite for potential homebuyers.
Fed Watch:
Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group:
|
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting Dates |
Current (5.25% - 5.50%) |
0.25% Reduction (5.00% - 5.25%) |
0.5% Reduction (4.75% - 5.00%) |
|
July 31 |
89.7% |
10.3% |
0% |
|
September 18 |
34.1% |
59.5% |
6.4% |
|
November 7 |
22.2% |
50.7% |
24.8% |
|
December 18 |
5.8% |
29.7% |
43.9% |
Market Review:
Optimal Blue’s Production Metrics:
Graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com.
U.S. cities with the biggest rent decreases and increases for two-bedrooms in June 2024
Year-over-year percent changes in median rents
Inflationary Income:
Perhaps the key reason surveys of consumer sentiment are so lousy is the impact of inflation, or more accurately the cumulative rise in prices from 2021. What gets lost is even though real wages fell behind inflation in 2021 and 2022, for almost two years average wages have been gaining on inflation, and real wages are now higher, on average, than pre-pandemic.
- Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist
News You Can Use:
- Fed's Kugler sees interest-rate cut this year and says economy is 'moving in right direction'
- com Reports Active Inventory Up 36.0% YoY
- Number of Mass. condo developments on Fannie Mae blacklist triples
- When will home prices go down? Six economists weigh in.
- 2023 New Single-Family Starts by Census Division
- Here’s where U.S. rents are rising — and falling — the fastest
- The typical new home in the U.S. is shrinking. Here’s what that means for buyers
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 06/27/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 06/27/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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