This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.
For the week of Sep 27th to Oct 3rd, interest rates have been steady. With the Fed now cutting rates, mortgage rates could continue to fall some through the end of 2024 and into 2025.
Lower rates have already caused some homeowners to refinance, but more could be making the choice to refi if rates drop further. Nearly 3 million outstanding mortgages have a rate at or above 6.75 percent, according to a CoreLogic. If rates fall more, refinancing could become more viable for these borrowers.
“The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist. “Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.”
Fed Watch:
Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group:
|
Upcoming Federal Reserve Meeting Dates |
0.25% Reduction (4.50% - 4.75%) |
0.5% Reduction (4.25% - 4.50%) |
0.75% Reduction (4.00% - 4.25%) |
|
November 7 |
67.6% |
32.4% |
0% |
|
December 18 |
0% |
41.5% |
46.0% |
|
January 29 |
0% |
0% |
34.7% |
Optimal Blue’s Production Metrics:
The longshoremen strike from Maine through Texas shouldn’t be underestimated. As a supply-side shock, this will raise prices, but the Fed will ignore this as rate hikes won’t influence either side in this negotiation. Estimates put the economic cost of this work stoppage at between $1 billion/day and $5 billion/day! Offered a 50% raise over six years, strikers want 77% and ironclad protection against automation. Can you say price gouging?
- Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. , Economist
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
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Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 10/03/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 10/03/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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