This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
For the week of Sept 8th – Sept 14th, 30-year and 15-year interest rates dropped over the previous week. Rates should remain within a tight range as the market seeks guidance and direction from the Federal Reserve. Next week’s FOMC meeting should start this process. Both September and November’s FOMC meetings should provide a road map for the direction of rates for the remainder of 2023 and Q1 of 2024, assuming there are no other outside influences.
Mortgage Rates Forecast for Q1 and Q2 2024, as of September 2023:
Fed Watch: Looking ahead, all eyes are on the upcoming September 20th Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group, 3% of forecasters predict an increase in interest rates, while 97% predict rates will remain the same. None of the forecasters expect rates to decrease.
Market Review:
Per Black Knight's Production Metrics, the breakdown of mortgage production volume is as follows: 84.12% for purchase transactions, 13.51% for cash-out refinances, and 2.37% for rate and term refinances.
Per Black Knight 53.67% of all Retail loan production were Government Loans (FHA, VA, USDA), while 46.33% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans.
News You Can Use
- The Fed will skip rate hikes in September and November, says Santander’s Stephen Stanley
- Retail Sales Increased 0.6% in August
- August CPI Forecast to Show More Good News on Inflation, Higher Gas Prices Aside
- Goldman Sachs CEO says US economic outlook uncertain despite soft landing prospects
- Household Real Estate Value Jumps in the Second Quarter
- Fed will start cutting interest rates in 2024 now that the ‘tightening cycle has run its course,’ economists say
- Mortgage rates projected to trend down in 2024
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 09/14/2023, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 09/14/2023 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
